Learning to Trust Joe
Astros sweep Twins, solidify hold on 1st in the West
My son and I have had several discussions about the job Joe Espada has done as manager of the Astros in his first year and a half.
I thought his performance was mediocre or perhaps the better phrase is “uneven”.
He believed that Espada was set up to fail last season, having been handed a team that was a shell of the World Series-level teams of 2017 and 2022, yet a fanbase that still held World Series expectations.
This season, I’ve come to appreciate the way Espada manages, both within the game and the season as a whole.
Perhaps, it’s just that I’m more familiar with his thinking, so familiar that I predicted Hummel in left and Guillorme at third after they won the first two games of the Minnesota series.
Am I sold? Not completely, but I think he’s done an admirable job with a team that is rife with injuries.
Expected Wins, Projected Standings and Should Be Standings
The Astros are up to 92 wins with Sunday’s walk-off not moving the needle.
The sweep over Minnesota and specifically the 10-2 win Friday, means the Astros extended their projected margin in the AL West to 7 games.
You can find all of MLB Baseball Projected Standings right here.
While the full season projections above has increased by a game to the Astros favor, the Should Be standings show a closer race than the actual standings currently reflect (not to mention a different order), by more than a game and a half.
The intent is to be more realistic than the actual standings.
The Astros have been “luckier” than the Mariners or Rangers, going 13-7 in one-run games and 4-0 in extras.
Meanwhile, the Mariners are 14-10 in one-run games and 4-6 in extras, while the Rangers are 11-13 in one-run games and 1-0 in extras.
Houston has played well in close games, no doubt, but those things tend to even out eventually.
Batter and Pitcher Season Projections
1 extra base hit in games 2 and 3 combined of the Twins series, means OPS and OPS+ are going to be a struggle.
The Astros are 17th in the league in slugging and 21st in home runs.
The bullpen continues to shine, but special kudos to Colton Gordon and Brandon Walter for quality starts and saving arms.
Detailed Pitching Stats
Quality Start Record
Across the league, teams win 65% of the time they get a quality start.
Three quality starts in a three-game series and three wins.
Record by Starting Pitcher
Wins in starts by Colton Gordon and Brandon Walter are huge.
Rando Stats of the Day
Bryan Abreu (8) and Josh Hader (7) are 15 for 15 in Shut-Down Inning situations, holding the opponent scoreless the inning after the Astros score.
The Astros bullpen is 5th in the league in ERA (3.19), 1st in FIP (3.20), 4th in xFIP (3.73) and 2nd in fWAR (3.9).
Jeremy Pena is slashing .407/.429/.519 in 56 June plate appearances.
Pena is slashing .367/.410/.544 in 196 plate appearances in the leadoff spot, while Jose Altuve is slashing .337/.370/.576 in 100 plate appearances in the three hole.
Victor Caratini is slashing .301/.376/.446 when catching (93 PA), .143/.125/.143. when playing first base (8 PA), .156/.250/.244 when DH (52 PA) and .143/.143/.143 as a pinch hitter (7 PA).
When not catching, Caratini is 9 for 59 (.153) with 2 RBI.
As always, thanks for reading!