MLB Standings Reset and Projections

The known unknowns and the unknown unknowns

With the Astros off, I decided to focus on the projected standings and luck rankings today. I realize that a subset of a subset of my typical readers care about this, but part of my decision to write here was the ability to write about what I wanted to write about and not necessarily what “sells”. Please feel free to opt out if you are one of those who finds no value in this. I get it.

MLB Projected Standings and Explanation

As I’ve mentioned before the genesis of my model was the 2021 season and Fangraphs projected wins for the eventual 107-win Giants.

To be clear, there are several flaws in my model, but in back-testing it’s performed better than the Pythagorean Theorem and Fangrphs model, though admittedly it hasn’t been rigorously tested.

I think of it as a hybrid model, as it includes aspects of Pythag and actual results (wins and losses) that are weighted differently throughout the season.

Early on runs scored and given up account for more of the weight and as the season goes on wins and losses account for more and more of the projection until finally, you are what your record says you are.

With that said, through games of July 26, 2023 here are the latest projections.

AL West

The Astros are within 2 games of the Rangers in the AL West, but my projections have the Rangers winning the West comfortably.

Simply put, this is because of their offense, which as we saw last night, is explosive and has outscored the Astros by 121 runs on the season.

The Rangers have issues, especially in the bullpen, and offensive-heavy teams tend to struggle in the postseason, but these are regular-season projections.

It will be fascinating to see how this plays out as the Rangers were the team that Fangraphs and I disagreed on the most at the All-Star break.

That was on July 11. More than 2 weeks later, Fangraphs is at 90 wins for the Rangers and I’m at 99. I’ve come down by 2 wins and Fangraphs has increased by 1.

Perhaps the bigger question for Astros fans will end up being the Wild Card race with the Angels acquiring Lucas Giolito and the Mariners making moves, albeit nothing earth-shaking so far.

In the real world, the Astros are 1 game ahead of the Blue Jays for the 2nd Wild Card spot and 1.5 ahead of the Red Sox.

My numbers show a much closer race and actually have the Astros on the outside looking in as of this morning, with the Blue Jays, Orioles and Red Sox all ahead of Houston in the Wild Card race.

The good news for the Astros is that my model (remember the “flaws” I mentioned above?) doesn’t include adjustments for the return of Altuve and Alvarez.

AL East

In the real world, the Orioles have passed the Rays. In my projected Rankings, the Rays win the East by 3 games.

Why? As we’ll see shortly, the Orioles have been the luckiest team in MLB (19-10 in one-run games, 6-5 in extras) and that’s not likely to continue for the duration of the season. Add that to Tampa’s +141 run differential and you have the answer.

It’s impossible for every team in the East to make the playoffs, but it will be fascinating to see if 4 will.

AL Central

A two-game real-world lead for the Twins is four games in my world. Certainly, this is still up in the air with more than two months to go.

AL Summary as of games of July 26

Division Winners: Rangers, Rays, Twins

Wild Cards: Orioles, Blue Jays, Red Sox

NL East

Braves. Everyone else is playing for a Wild Card.

NL Central

Perhaps the most fascinating race. The Cubs are the only team with a positive run differential (+48), but are mired in third place, six games back, one game under .500.

That positive run differential is not enough to push them higher in my rankings, but this is a division that could still be won by any of the Brewers, Reds or Cubs, with the loser(s), potentially left out of the playoff altogether (more on that below).

NL West

The Dodgers are slowly pulling away, with the Giants and Diamondbacks battling to stay within striking distance and for Wild Card spots.

I wouldn’t count either of those two teams out in West yet, but that speaks more to the Dodgers flaws rather than the prowess of the teams chasing them.

NL Summary as of games of July 26

Division Winners: Braves, Dodgers, Brewers

Wild Cards: Giants, Phillies, Diamondbacks/Reds (toss-up)

Luck Rankings

These luck rankings are based largely on the theory that one-run and extra-inning records tend to regress toward .500.

Teams with positive numbers will likely regress towards 0 (neutral) and teams with negative numbers will do the same.

The most obvious juxtaposition here is the aforementioned Orioles/Rays conundrum.

The theory: As the Orioles regress towards 0.00 and the Rays improve towards 0.00 the Rays run differential will be too much for the Orioles to withstand.

It also suggests that the Cubs may be worth keeping an eye on.

Thanks for reading!