Opening Day Roster Thoughts

Two weeks until real baseball means it's time to start thinking roster

As happens quite often, the idea I originally conceived for this post went by the wayside once I began to write.

My original concept was a side-by-side comparison of what Fangraphs has pegged as the lineup/roster and what I thought would happen.

It turns out the two are so close to being the same that it made no sense to compare when the lists were the same on 24 or 25 of the 26 spots.

Not wanting to trash my research to that point (this happens more than you would think), I pivoted to providing what Fangraphs envisions and commenting on areas that I think are question marks or still up for debate.

The Lineup

There isn’t a lot to disagree with here, assuming Christian Walker is healthy by Opening Day.

The question for me is how much Dubon starts at second vs. the super utility role he’s held in the past.

I would also question Dubon’s value as an everyday second baseman, though we know others, including Jose Altuve, will see time there.

Fangraphs has penciled Dubon in for 350 plate appearances, but that’s for all positions, not just second base.

Just a couple of days ago they had Brendan Rodgers projected for 350+ plate appearances in this spot and Dubon on the bench, so something has changed somewhere.

We’ll talk more about second base when we get to the bench in 5,4,3, 2, 1…

Bench

Did you know Jon Singleton doesn’t have any options left? I kid. Of course, you do, Astros analysts/broadcasters talk about it every chance they get.

Given Walker’s injury, it’s smart to keep Singleton on the roster, at least for the early part of the season to make sure there are no setbacks.

The problem with keeping Singleton is his lack of versatility - 1st base, DH, PH. That’s it.

I can see a scenario where they keep Singleton until May-ish and then decide as other needs arise.

Other needs like another outfield option, for instance.

There are so many other first-base options in an emergency that I fail to see how this is a wise use of a roster spot absent Walker's oblique concerns.

Here’s another option - Carry 3 catchers.

Hear me out: Caratini can be the second catcher and/or backup first baseman and Salazar can be the emergency catcher.

That doesn’t solve the versatility problem, but it does free up Caratini to play first, DH or PH (Singleton’s role), without worrying about an injury to Yainer that leaves you without a catcher (Salazar).

I mentioned the shift at second base by Fangraphs this week - from Rodgers to Dubon at 2nd. Not only did they change the projected starter, but also booted Rodgers from the active roster entirely.

Luis Guillorme makes more sense as a bench piece to me in that he offers more versatility than Rodgers. Rodgers has minimal experience anywhere other than second (23 starts at short in 2021), while Guillorme has started 166 games at second, 66 at third and 20 at shortstop.

Side note, FanGraphs still has Rodgers projected for almost 200 plate appearances, but if he’s not on the Opening Day roster that seems unlikely.

Without Dubon, this is a weak bench.

Rotation

No changes here, just a note that Framber is the only left-hander in the group.

Waiting in the wings is Colton Gordon who is a lefty, Ryan Gusto and perhaps Miguel Ullola, though the latter might be used out of the bullpen first.

If you’ve read this site over the last month, you know I’m intrigued by Wesneski and will follow closely.

Bullpen

I’m a Bryan King fan and believe he should start the season in Houston, but as the only reliever with options other than Hernandez, I wouldn’t put it past the Astros to option him and keep someone else and hope fate is on their side.

On the flip side, they could keep King and option him when an arm is needed, if they don’t want to lose someone else via DFA.

Fangraphs has kept Ort on the projected Opening Day roster despite Ort just now beginning to throw off a mound.

Will he be ready in two weeks? That seems aggressive to me and that could be the opening to keep King and someone else.

Okert is an intriguing left-handed option and with 6 scoreless innings this spring and seems to have found a spot.

With the Dubin injury, Fangraphs pencils in Nick Hernandez for the long role and I’m not opposed to it.

Outside of his blow-up against the Orioles last June, Hernandez was solid, even giving the Astros 3.2 innings of one-run ball against the Tigers the week previous.

Another reason to question King’s spot is the signing of veteran left-handed reliever Jalen Beeks.

Of course, this could all be related to Bennett Sousa’s (he’s left-handed, too) spring where he’s given up 6 earned runs, including 3 home runs in 3.2 innings, but the Astros sudden interest in left-handed relievers is curious.

With only King and Hernandez having options the bullpen is the most unsettled aspect of the team.

I haven’t even mentioned Rafael Montero, as it seems he’s destined for the DFA list, but who knows how the Astros handle the sunk cost and whether they’ll try and squeeze some innings out of him for their millions of investment.

Given the lack of re-signings (Neris, Ferguson, etc.) this could be another season of yo-yoing between Sugar Land and Houston with the requisite DFAing that goes with guys having no options.

And that’s really the issue here. Except for Hernandez and King if a reliever fails, he’s not going to Sugar Land, he’s being sent into the ether via DFA.

An Ominous Sign for Whitcomb and Dezenzo?

In some ways it’s difficult to believe that a team that lost Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman and is auditioning marginal players off the scrap heap can’t find a spot for Shay Whitcomb or Zach Dezenzo.

Sure, I have questions about their long-term viability and defense, but I think each showed promise last season.

If Walker is entrenched at first and Paredes at third for the next several seasons, their futures with the club have to be in question, right?

Whitcomb is 26 and Dezenzo will be 25 in May.

Whitcomb hasn’t helped himself this spring with 10 strikeouts in 22 at-bats, but he has 1,800 at-bats and 35 and 25 home run seasons in the minors and it doesn’t seem like there’s much more to prove there.

It will be interesting to see where they play on defense at Sugar Land as there has been talk of Dezenzo seeing time in left field and even then he would be behind Altuve, Alvarez and potentially others like McCormick and Dubon.

Whitcomb has 11 minor league starts in the outfield, Dezenzo 3.