Pair of Aces?

Are the Astros holding 2 Aces or 0 Aces?

I’ve written about it, somewhat passive-aggressively, sometimes subtly and sometimes more directly.

I’ve talked about it in chats, texts, online and with my kid.

I fully acknowledge my bias and publicly talked about a bet since I placed it back in March, so maybe I’m just bitter (and poorer).

Going into 2023, I thought there was little doubt Framber Valdez was the Astros ace.

I was wrong.

Valdez was coming off a 17-6 season with a 2.82 ERA, a 3.06 FIP, the lowest WHIP of his career to that point (outside of 2020) and sizzled in the playoffs, capping it with 2 World Series wins, including a 1.46 ERA in 12.1 innings in the Fall Classic.

I don’t know when it happened, but sometime late in the season, I changed my mind, which was coincidentally around the time Justin Verlander rejoined the club.

Or maybe it’s not a coincidence and apparently, I’m not the only one.

It’s early in the vote and you can still vote here (or click on the image above, until Tuesday.

Verlander was good, not great, and in Astros rotations of the past perhaps he wouldn’t have been “Ace Worthy”, but in 2023 from August on Verlander was the guy that when he took the hill I had the most confidence the Astros would win.

Valdez was still good, he even threw a beautiful no-hitter on just 93 pitches and I would argue that his 12-11 record was due in part to a lack of run support early on in the season, like from Opening Day. He had 19 quality starts, improved his WHIP, reduced walks and increased strikeouts per 9 IP.

For me, though being a team “Ace” is about more than just numbers. Sure numbers are a big part of it, but too many times Framber blew leads, often lost his concentration and composure and made bad situations worse with bad decisions.

And he was horrendous in the playoffs, giving up 19 hits, 4 home runs and 6 walks in 12 innings.

Maybe the pitch clock affected Framber in ways it didn’t affect other pitchers and he’ll be back to 2022 Framber in 2024.

Whatever the reason, he wasn’t the same pitcher in 2023 as he was in 2022, improved numbers or not.

While Framber was volatile, Verlander was steady, never losing control and almost always making the right decisions.

Come Opening Day, Verlander will be 41 and Valdez will be entering his 3rd arbitration year, earning an estimated $12,800,000.

The Astros window is closing and my guess is 2024 is the last gasp for this core to compete for a World Series.

Verlander’s time as an ace has closed and I would argue the Astros are now a team without an ace, at least by my definition.

Now more than ever the Astros need the 2022 version of Valdez.

The ace version.