Projected 2026 Astros Wins Added (Win Shares)
Projected Wins Added showed just how important Yordan Alvarez is to the Astros
I know I’m in dangerous territory, posting this on the day the Texans take on the Steelers in the final game of NFL Wild Card Weekend, but hey, it’s OK if this sits in your inbox for another day or two.
More than Hunter Brown, more than pitching in general, I’m not splitting the atom when I say that Yordan Alvarez’s health is the most important factor in the Astros having a successful 2026.
In a season in which the Cuban slugger played in 48 games and had 199 plate appearances, the Astros finished 1 game out of the playoffs in 2025.
Joe Espada says Alvarez is so important the Astros want him to DH and play left sparingly and that’s where he’s currently listed on Fangraphs’ Roster Resource, relegating Isaac Paredes to the pine.
The expected win shares below are based on THE BAT X projections for batters and THE BAT projections for pitchers and the average team fWAR per win over the last three seasons.
Yordan added only 1.1 wins last season, and the 10.4 expected this season means a difference of +9.3.
The Astros won 87 games with Alvarez being responsible for 1.1 wins.
Amazing.
On the flip side, the problem with hoping for a full year of Yordan is that in the most recent five seasons, he has played 135 games or more just three times and 140 or more just twice.
The Astros would be thrilled with 135 games and 550-600 plate appearances, compared to the 199 of last season.
To wit, STEAMER projects 131 games and 567 plate appearances and THE BAT X is at 131/565.
Remember that when he sits out a random game in June or July.
Think long term, not the getaway-day game series finale of a 9-game road trip.
Below is the same information in chart form, along with the expected THE BAT X fWAR (BAT X for pitchers).
It also shows the total wins and expected 35.8 team total fWAR, but I wouldn’t be too worried about the raw number - remember this doesn’t include future roster moves, trades, deadline acquisitions or even minor league players that will contribute during the season, just the 26 currently listed on the Roster Resource.
Think of it as a starting point and as we pointed out last week, the Astros are starting well behind the Mariners.
As always, thanks for reading!