Putrid Performance Puts AL West in Doubt
Astros shut out twice in a three-game series in Daikin as futile offense falls flat
About three seconds after I praised the Astros post-deadline lineup they almost got perfect-gamed and did get shut out twice in a series with the Orioles at their own park.
They came perilously close to being swept.
Thank goodness the Mariners, Marinered and the Astros maintain their 1.5 game lead in the real standings with 38 games left (37 for Seattle).
Expected Wins, Should Be Standings and Projected Standings
As we see in the second graph, the Astros are at their lowest expected win total since June 10, and August has been up and down, quite literally.
Houston is currently benefiting from about 1.8 wins of luck (or randomness, if you prefer that term), including a 22-12 record in one-run games and an 8-4 record in extra-innings.
If the wins and losses and run differential continue at the current rate, we would expect the final AL West Standings to look like this:
None of the three is up and to the right since August 10.
Batter and Pitcher Season Projections
Raise your hand if you thought Jose Altuve would lead the team in home runs.
The bullpen has been horrendous lately.
Quality At-Bats
Not only did the Correa regression hit, but the entire team regressed and now the team average is down to 39.2%
Rando Stats of the Day
From August 1-17 the rotation has a 4.06 ERA, while the bullpen is at 6.12.
For the Baltimore series, the offense registered a 6 wRC+ while slashing .149/.225/.178 with a .174 wOBA and -1.0 fWAR.
Before hitting the IL, Shawn Dubin had held batters to a slash of .219/.296/.356, an 83 OPS+, but in 3 appearances since returning, opponents are mashing Dubin to the tune of .611/.632/1.333 with a 421 OPS+.
Jesus Sanchez doubled in the top of the 4th inning off Luis Gil on August 9 and scored on Carlos Correa’s single two batters later. Since then, he is 0 for 21.
As always, thanks for reading!