I’m generally not a fan of Fantasy Baseball for reasons we don’t need to get into here, but that doesn’t stop me from reading on topics that are written in fantasy terms, but potentially useful for those of us who enjoy analyzing actual baseball.
Coming in February: 2025 Individual Player Projections
So it was that I came upon an article on Fangraphs.com about the HardHit% Age Curve that I found fascinating.
It doesn’t take a genius to see what happens when a batter hits age 32 and beyond.
This has the makings of an interesting offseason project to apply to Astros players.
At Cliff’s Edge (or worse)
Trying to use this for current Astros proved to be more challenging than I originally imagined. The resulting graph became very “busy” and difficult to read, but maybe that’s my fault and the time of day I attempted to do so.
I ended up using the Slug for players in that general age range.
It’s fairly easy to see Jose Altuve’s slugging decline and newly minted first baseman Christian Walker could be in the early stages of a slugging issue that the Astros will own for three seasons.
Jon Singleton, who is out of options and perhaps out of a spot on the roster by opening day, had a marked improvement in his aged 32 season, but the bar was very low and the resulting .368 mark was still well below the league average of .399.
Just for grins, Alex Bregman will turn 31 this season, and his last three slugs have been .454, .441, and .453. This can be viewed as praise for consistency and simultaneous caution regarding a six-year contract offer.
As fans, we all believe “our guy” will be the exception to the rule and there are undoubtedly exceptions out there, maybe a few on the Astros.
But the odds are not in your favor no matter who “your guy” is.
Not All Players are the Same
Altuve will still be the heart and soul of the team and likely worth the cost even with less power, but that calculus changes for other players.
It’s the Astros job to figure out that calculus.
I recommend treading carefully.
What is celebrated today, may be vilified in the coming seasons.
Today’s anchor could be tomorrow’s albatross.
Thank you for reading!
Further Reading: