The Cost of Reacquiring Joey Loperfido
Loperfido returns to Houston as Jesus Sanchez departs
I’m a little behind on the news, but Joey Loperfido is returning to Houston and Jesus Sanchez is going the other way to the Blue Jays.
I was never sold on Sanchez and his performance last season was dismal.
There were those who argued Sanchez would regress positively this season, and I understand that was a possibility; his history shows better numbers than those he posted last season as an Astro.
But $6,800,000 was a little much to pay to take that chance for a team that’s looking for spare change between their proverbial couch cushions.
fWAR-wise, this is a move that makes the Astros weaker - Loperfido is projected as a 0.6 fWAR player, and Sanchez comes in at 1.3.
Fangraphs.com pegs Loperfido as the “starter” in left field, getting 350 plate appearances at the position, while also seeing time in center (21 PA) and right (21 PA).
Overall, the projection for Loperfido is a slash of .239/.301/.392, which obviously translates to a .693 OPS, well below league average of .719 in 2025.
Just for grins, Sanchez projects to a .739 OPS (.246/.314/.425).
The Astros traded Sanchez to save on his salary while gaining a younger player with some upside and years of control.
They also gave up (theoretically) 0.7 fWAR.
Where They Stand
It’s a good thing the Astros aren’t done because, if the projections are correct or close to correct, the Mariners are likely to win the AL West.
Since I last posted this, the Astros are -1.0 fWAR, while the Mariners are +1.8, netting 2.8 fWAR, or somewhere between 5-6 games in favor of Seattle.
That 5.6 fWAR difference is a massive number, because only 6 players (Judge, Witt, Jr., Raleigh, Gunnar Henderson, Julio Rodriquez, and Juan Soto) are projected to reach that by themselves, meaning the Astros are multiple players short, not just one.
Of course, these are all projections and should be evaluated as such.
They are projections, however, by people who do this for a living, “educated guesses”, as it were.
Dana Brown said the Astros aren’t done.
They can’t be and hope to win the West.
As always, thanks for reading!