The Free Agents: Hector Neris [Probably]

Part 1 - A look at the Astros free agents to be

Heart Attack Hector

My son has taken to giving the Astros bullpen nicknames like the one above. Sometimes they are spot on, sometimes they reflect his nervousness when the bullpen is called upon to hold or close out a game and generally rhyme or are alliterative.

Though it’s been reported that Neris and the Astros have a mutual $8.5 million option for 2024, Neris reached numbers that put the option solely in Neris’ court and it’s an option the pitcher is almost certain to decline.

• 2024 converts to a player option with one of:
  - 50 appearances in each of 2022-23
  - 60 appearances in 2023
  - 110 appearances across 2022-23

I’ve seen some online analysis that advances the thought that Neris is a mediocre reliever and there are some numbers that would point in that direction: An xERA (3.35) almost twice as high as his ERA and FIP (3.83) and xFIP (4.45) numbers even higher.

Add to those mediocre numbers for Stuff+ (99), Location+ (99) and Pitching+ (97) and those concerns make some sense.

Many believe Neris overachieved and resigning him at a higher price would be foolish, perhaps in the same vein as Rafael Montero last winter.

This was definitely Neris’ best season in the Majors and whoever signs the 34-year-old (35 in June), will pay for it in 2024. Literally.

On the flip side, Neris was an integral part of the Astros bullpen in 2023. Setting aside his 1.71 ERA, Neris allowed only 41 hits in 68.1 IP, while striking out 77 and walking 31 (which is way too many, 4.08/9IP).

Relievers aren’t perfect. They are going to give up runs at some point and because they generally pitch one inning at a time ERA, good or bad, is not the go-to statistic for me (though it is a consideration).

Fangraphs has a couple of stats that add context around relievers like Neris, who pitch in nearly half the games in a season, with relatively few decisions and fewer save opportunities: Shutdowns and Meltdowns.

What does this mean? It’s very specific.

If a player increased his team’s win probability by 6% (0.06 WPA), then they get a Shutdown. If a player made his team 6% more likely to lose (-0.06), they get a Meltdown.

In 2023 Neris had 33 shutdowns and 4 meltdowns. For context, closer Ryan Pressly had 28 shutdowns and 10 meltdowns and even Bryan Abreu’s incredible season didn’t approach Neris’ (23 shutdowns, 9 meltdowns).

In short, Neris was the most dependable reliever in the bullpen.

There are other numbers in Neris’ favor: Exit Velo: Top 9% of the League, xBA top 5%, WOBA top 6% and HardHit% top 2%.

On Neris’ baseball-reference page, the top pitcher under Similarity Scores is…wait for it…Ryan Pressly.

Unfortunately, the next 9 after Pressly are a bunch of mediocre or worse relievers like Brad Boxberger, Duane Ward and Grant Balfour.

The Verdict

This will be a hard sell for Astros fans (and perhaps Jim Crane) after the Rafael Montero deal last winter (3 years, $34,500,000).

My take is this is revisionist thinking. Montero saved 14 of 16 games in 2022 and accumulated 37 shutdowns and only 5 meltdowns. He was very good and looked like a “safe” bet. I didn’t turn out that way.

In retrospect, the Montero signing looks terrible. At the time, not so much. Will Neris be a similar one-year flash?

Neris has appeared in 141 games and covered 133.2 innings over the last two seasons and part of the front office calculation has to be who would replace Neris’ role if he didn’t resign with the Astros. Is there someone currently on the roster, in the minors or on the front office’s radar?

Those are questions I don’t know, so while it’s difficult to make a decision in a vacuum (and not knowing the asking price), I lean toward attempting to resign Neris, but my guess is someone other than Houston makes an offer he can’t refuse.

Thanks for reading!