The Free Agents: Phil Maton

Part 3 - A look at the Astros free agents to be

Nov 01, 2023

The King of Soft Contact

Maybe the name above is not the coolest, but it beats “Spin Rate”, which baseball-reference lists as Maton’s nickname.

Maton’s average exit velo of 84.5 MPH puts him in the top 1% of the league and when looking at pitchers that faced 250 or more batters that number places him 3rd overall behind Brent Suter and Tyler Rogers.

Other categories that Maton excels at include, xERA (90th percentile), xBA (95th), Whiff% (90th), HardHit% (100th) and Extension (96th).

Somewhat counterintuitively, Maton’s not great at Barrel% (63rd percentile) and his average launch angle has skyrocketed since the 2021 season, when he came to Houston with Yainer Diaz in the Myles Straw trade.

Maton’s 2023 was up and down. His ERA was below 1 for the first 2 months of the season, rose in June, exploded in July and August and then was back under 1 for September.

Me? I never really felt like he could be trusted, despite good overall numbers.

The Verdict

One look at the Shutdown/Meltdown numbers tells me why I lack trust: 16 shutdowns and 13 meltdowns is a horrible ratio and helps explain why Maton came in earlier in games later in the season.

Another concerning stat is Maton’s 75.1% LOB%, which is the worst in the Astros bullpen with the exception of Rafael Montero (for pitchers that are mainly relievers).

I will say at $2,550,000 per year Maton was a bargain and he did make 135 appearances covering 131.2 innings over the last two seasons.

As a boss once told me, “It is what it is”, and Phil Maton is what he is. He’s going to be up and down, hot and cold. He’s not a closer or setup guy. He’s a JAG (Just a guy), not a difference-maker.

If a reasonable price can be agreed upon there’s no reason for the Astros not resign Maton.

But that’s the thing. Maton got a million-dollar raise last offseason, so my guess is he’ll be looking for substantially more as an unrestricted fee agent who’ll be 31 before the 2024 season begins.

If someone overpays for him, it shouldn’t be the Astros.

Read about the other Astros free agents to be: