The Future: The Long Shots

So, you're sayin' there's a chance?

Each Winter, I reach out to Kenny Van Doren of Astros Future (I highly recommend the podcast) for players who have the potential to help the Astros in the coming season.

No one knows more about Astros prospects than Kenny.

Here are the names Kenny shared with me, some of whom you’ve read about here previously, along with a few new names.

We’ve already profiled the players Kenny expects to see time in Houston in the coming season:

Brice Matthews, Zach Cole, Miguel Ullola, and Ethan Pecko

Now it’s time to focus on the longer shots.

Bryce Mayer

The 493rd overall pick (16th round) in the 2024 draft, Mayer was a long shot to become a prospect, much less a big leaguer.

It only took the 6’3, 210-pound righty 3 professional appearances before other teams became interested.

Mayer’s works out of the three-quarter arm slot, and his fastball comes in at 94-96 MPH, with both the fastball and curve grading out at 55, despite his overall rating of only 45.

Mayer pitched at three levels last season, ending in Corpus, where he struck out 37 and walked only 12, while giving up 30 hits in 29 innings.

Currently rated as the Astros’ No. 9 prospect and third-highest pitching prospect, the Astros plan to develop Mayer as a starter.

James Hicks

For someone way down the Astros prospect list at No. 24, James Hicks sure has gotten favorable reviews. Like Mayer, the 24-year-old out of Crowder (Mo.) JC and the University of South Carolina is a veteran of Tommy John surgery.

Houston picked Hicks in the 13th round in 2024 and he reached AA last season, his first full professional campaign.

Hicks throws a 2-seam fastball with sink that hits the low 90 MPH range, along with a changeup.

None of his pitches grades above average, but Hicks sequences his pitches well, and his control grades out above average at 55.

To that end, he walked only 14 in 46.2 innings at Corpus last season and he profiles as a back-end starter or middle reliever with an ETA of 2026.

Joseph Sullivan

2024 7th round pick Joseph Sullivan first opened eyes last spring with a homer, but quickly faded, which is no surprise.

Sullivan, the Astros’ No. 5 prospect, has several things going for him. First, he bats left-handed, something the Astros have lacked recently, though a healthy Yordan Alvarez and more playing time for Zach Cole will help alleviate that.

Secondly, Sullivan is fast, grading out at 60 in Run and stealing 42 bases across two levels last season.

He is also an above-average fielder (55 grade) who can play center.

Perhaps most importantly, especially with Sullivan’s below-average hit tool, are his solid swing decisions, which, of course, lead to getting on base more frequently. This allowed Sullivan to have a .395 OBP, despite hitting .220 with 133 strikeouts between Asheville and Corpus.

2026 Outlook

In general, the pitchers have a better chance of seeing time in an Astros uniform in 2026, if for no other reason than the sheer volume of arms needed to make it through a 162-game season.

It’s also interesting that Sullivan is considered the better prospect, despite Cole’s success (relative and small sample, for sure) last season.

I get it, though, the analysis is projecting production and not necessarily in the “I’ll believe it when I see it” mode as I do.

The trade of Jacob Melton opened up some space in the Astros outfield competition and 2026 looks to be a big year in the development of Cole and Sullivan, if either is to take the next step.

Thanks for reading!