The Next Test Has Arrived
Astros head to Colorado and Jeremy Pena heads to the Injured List
When the Astros take the field this evening in Denver they will be without Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman and that’s not even counting the myriad of pitchers that are injured, including three that started the season in the rotation, yet here they are 6 games ahead in the AL West 84 games into the season.
You have to think at some point this will all catch up with them, unless they can begin getting at least some of these players back.
That means, despite the 6-game lead, every win is important.
Expected Wins, Should Be Standings and Projected Standings
After a shellacking Saturday cost the Astros two expected wins, they earned one back on Sunday and finished June with 94.
After starting June with 86 xWins, an incredible 19-7 month, along with a 112 to 80 run differential, finds the Astros ending June with 94 xWins.
The should be standings show a closer race than the actual standings, likely the result of the Astros 17-7 mark in one-run games, 5-1 record in extras and the recent unusual run-differential/won-loss combination.
For example, over the just-completed 6-game home stand, the Astros went 5-1 with a 0-run differential.
That’s not typical.
My model shows the Astros with about 1.2 wins of “luck” while the Mariners are at just 0.1.
In short, expect some regression from Houston.
If the wins and losses and run differential continue at the current rate, we would expect the final AL West Standings to look like this:
To get there from here the Astros would go 44-34, Mariners 41-37 and Rangers 40-37.
Let’s check back at year’s end for grins.
June Batter and Pitcher Stats
Batter and Pitcher Season Projections
Quality At-Bats
Cam to the top.
Team average is 38.9%
Bullpen Stats
The enigma that is Bryan Abreu.
Easy innings are not Abreu’s thing.
He did retire the Cubs in order on Sunday and that bumped him up a bit, but when you see Okert at 59.4% and Hader at 48.6%, it makes you wonder why that number isn’t higher.
To Abreu’s credit - he has been 100% on shut down innings, along with Hader and Sousa.
Quality Starts
Since we last posted, the Astros are 4-0 in Quality Starts and 1-1 in non-Quality Starts.
Record by Starting Pitcher
48% of the Astros’ wins have come with Valdez or Brown as the starter.
Rando Stats of the Day
The Astros allowed the fewest runs in MLB in June (80).
Houston’s starting pitchers had a 3.09 ERA in June, good enough for third in MLB, while the bullpen was 3rd in the league (best in AL) with a 2.66 ERA in June.
The Astros batters compiled a 106 wRC+ in June, good for 12th in the league.
Houston’s pitching staff (all) compiled a 2.93 ERA and 4.7 fWAR in June, both leading the league.
The Astros are 16-13 with Yordan active (this includes off days before he went on the Injured List) and 34-21 without him.
As always, thanks for reading!