Updated Projections - 117 of 162 Games

Back to the Basics

Marty Coleman

Aug 12, 2024

Be sure to check out our new pages that are updated daily:

Astros Expected Wins | MLB Projected Standings | MLB Power Rankings | MLB Luck Rankings | Journal

Composition of Projections:

2024 Actuals: 72.2% Preseason Projections: 27.8%

The Astros are 62-55, in 1st place in the American League West, by a single percentage point.

Fangraphs projects an 87-75 finish, first place in the AL West and gives the Astros a 55.1% chance of winning the Division and a 67.3% chance of making the playoffs.

Abbreviated Update

Life has intervened and I haven’t had the normal time to devote to this page recently. Apologies.

Here is a brief update. Back to the basics, if you will.

Season Projections

Aledmys Diaz’s projections will reflect projections as an Astro only.
Pedro Leon’s and Zach Dezenzo’s projections will reflect a prorated season as we do with all players without previous MLB experience.
Yusei Kikuchi and Caleb Ferguson’s projections will reflect projections as an Astro only.

Stress Index

I like this index in combination with innings pitched, because not every inning is the same.

That said, it’s far from perfect, but it gives you a general idea of who is having stressful starts, especially when you see guys over 105 or so (still developing the heat map aspect).

The Home Run Project

OVER | UNDER

Under: 67 Over: 47 Push: 3

Under: 57.3% Over: 40.2% Push: 2.6%

Streak: 2 OVER

If you want information on Umpires Scorecards please visit umpscorecards.com.

Projected Standings | Expected Wins | Luck

Through games of 8.11.24

Luck Rankings

Teams at top are “luckiest”, teams at bottom are “unluckiest”.

Astros are 26th in the Luck Rankings, implying there is still some upside in their W/L record ahead.

The Astros are 11-19 in one-run games.

The number below is the percentage of a team’s winning percentage that can be attributed to “luck”, either positive (green) or negative (red).

Example: At one point the Astros win % was .439 and my numbers say they “should” have been at .493, a difference of .054.

.054/.439 = 12.3% (rounded), which was the Astros luck rating, which was negative in this example.

In general, you expect the teams at bottom to regress positively (towards 0.00) and teams at top to regress negatively (to 0.00).

Other Stats/Information

Quality Starts

Across the league teams win close to 70% of games where their team’s starter throws a quality start.

It is closer to 80% if your pitcher has a quality start and the other team’s pitcher does not throw a quality start.

Simply put, it’s indicative of “giving your team a chance”.

MLB Power Rankings

On a scale where 100.00 = 81 wins. In other words, a power number of 110.00 means you would be expected to win 110% of the “average team” (81 wins) which equals 89 games.

These rankings consider runs scored, runs given up AND wins and losses.

50.00 = 40.50 wins

75.00 = 60.75 wins

100.00 = 81.00 wins

125.00 = 101.25 wins