Updated Projections - 19 of 162

Where have the extra-base hits gone?

Composition of Projections:

2023 Actuals: 11.7%

Preseason Projections: 88.3%

Season Projections

McCormick in blue to signify IL.

Abreu’s expected HR slowing trending down.

What a start for Louis Garcia, whose Game Score of 85 is the Astros best of the season.

Today’s Pitching Matchup

The vast wasteland as neither Hunter Brown or Bryce Elder has any history against the opponent.

Elder is a 23-year-old right-hander and is 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the season.

Bullpen Usage

Consecutive appearances for Pressly, Abreu and Montero means yesterday was a welcomed day off.

K Prop

I nailed Garcia on the over and let’s see what happens tonight with Brown. My model predicts 5.67 and the market is at 5.0. Take the over.

A caveat here is Brown has no experience vs. the Braves, like 0 plate appearances, so this is definitely a gamble.

Odds

Astros are -103, which I’m not sure I understand, given they’re on the road with a rookie pitching with 0 experience against a really good opponent.

Projected Standings

The story here is the A’s, not the Rangers.

May not mean anything note of the day

Astros are slugging .382 (21st in MLB) and are tied for 18th with 19 home runs.

They are also 24th in ISO Power, which is the percentage of at-bats that result in extra-base hits (13.3%).

Astros 162

Click on the image for Episode 19.

Thanks for reading!