Updated Projections - 4 of 162
2-2 1.5 GB
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 2.5%
Preseason Projections: 97.5%
Season Projections
I addressed an issue with my calculations that I noticed over the weekend. If you notice something out of whack, please let me know. Very much a work in progress.
The numbers for Julks and Salazar look cattywampus. Due to no prior MLB experience, I’m simply using an “on pace for” type of calculation for the season and you can see why that wouldn’t work in general, especially 4 games into the season and with Salazar walking and scoring in his only plate appearance.
It’ll work itself out over time.
K Prop
My model puts Hunter Brown at 5.69 strikeouts on the high end and expects him to face 22 batters.
Still early for K props because of early season volatility, especially in batters faced, though I’m tempted on this one, but with the market at 5.5 I’m sitting it out.
Odds
Astros are -230 which I’m not touching with your money, but I do think it might be worth a shot at -1.5 at -110, with all of the “it’s early” caveats.
Detroit scored 3 runs in 3 games against Tampa and the Astros split 4 games in which Yordan Alvarez didn’t play in one and Alex Bregman is 0 for the first four games.
Bullpen Usage
Today’s Pitching Matchup
Lefthander Matthew Boyd has extensive experience facing Jose Abreu.
Brown, of course, has minimal experience against everyone.
Projected Standings
Coming soon. I’m now planning on this being released to paying subscribers first.
May not mean anything note of the day
Alex Bregman is 0 for 16 with 7 strikeouts.
Astros 162
Click on the image for Episode 4.
Thanks for reading!