Updated Projections - 85 of 162
3 out of 4 is better
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 52.5%
Preseason Projections: 47.5%
EDITOR’S NOTE:
We were in Arlington for Monday’s game and are in Houston for Tuesday’s game. Updates may be delayed. The picture above is after the final out in Monday’s game.
Season Projections
Lots of updates: After going 4 for 4 Monday, Kyle Tucker now leads in projected batting average.
Yordan also gave up a couple of categories - it only took a month of him not playing. Bregman takes over runs scored and Tucker also takes over the projected RBI lead.
Another rough day for Javier. Can’t imagine he can endure much more of this.
Astros 162
Click on the image for Episode 85. It was recorded in a hotel room after I lost my voice in the 9th inning yesterday, so please indulge me.
Bullpen Usage
The answer to who they were going to use yesterday was “everyone”. With Bielak scheduled to start, it’s an even bigger question today.
Today’s Pitching Matchup
Not much to see here. I would expect runs.
K Prop
The number for Bielak is over 4.5 and doesn’t have enough history for me to bet, but Colorado is 13-29 on the road and strikes out 7th most in MLB at 24.1%
Odds
Astros are -188 on ML and +102 -1.5. Bielak and the bullpen are wild cards, but hitting is contagious. I’m riding with Astros at home -1.5 for + money.
Projected Standings
Rangers lost a game yesterday.
May not mean anything notes of the day
Cristian Javier reached 93.8 MPH on his fastball yesterday, but averaged 92.5 which is down 1.1 from his 2022 average.
Since June 1:
Kyle Tucker: .342/.413/.586 wOBA .423 wRC+ 175
Chas McCormick: .324/.398/.554 wOBA .409 wRC+ 166
Jose Abreu: .303/.325/.541 wOBA .363 wRC+ 133
I was there yesterday and Abreu was scortching the ball. It doesn’t excuse his April and May, but he is hitting the ball hard and since June 1 leads the Astros in average exit velo at 94.0.
Brandon Bielak’s hard-hit rate allowed is in the bottom 2% of the league at 50.6%.
Thanks for reading!