Updated Projections - Game 10 of 162
He's going to blow it
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 6.2%
Preseason Projections: 93.8%
“He’s going to blow it”, my son said as the Rangers made it 3-1 in the 9th.
“No, he’s not”, I replied, sounding confident, while a little unsure in my mind.
Season Projections
Not exactly an offensive explosion.
Blanco on a roll.
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Second consecutive game with incredibly low stress on Blanco for a starter.
Maybe Pressly isn’t broken.
Surprisingly low stress for Montero and Pressly.
Hader could be down today and Pressly and Montero have gone two straight.
The Game Turned When
Top 3, 2 on, 1 out: Yordan Alvarez homered (Fly). Jake Meyers scored, Jose Altuve scored, increasing Astros win probability from 22.5% to 45.8% (+23.3%).
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Told you they were wild.
Will settle in over next several weeks and July 1 was a good barometer last season.
This is not predictive, obviously. This is how they have played so far.
When looking at actual standings:
Look for regression from: Yankees, Angels, Pirates
Look for improvement from: Diamondbacks, Marlins, Astros, Royals
The Home Run Project
Yordan’s 108.6 MPH blast had a LI of 2.15, by far the highest leverage of any of the Astros 14 home runs of the season.
The Grumpy Ump
Congrats to Scott Barry, the worst ump the Astros have had this season thru 10 games.
The under is now 7-2-1 in Astros games.
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Stat(s) of the Day
Opponents are batting .000 of Ronel Blanco’s four-seam fastball and changeup and .067 off his slider.
The combo of Jake Meyers in center and Chas McCormick in left is the best defensive outfield option and no one is going to convince me Dubon belongs out there.
Jakes bat is the question and I get playing Dubon over him at times because of it.
Chas is far superior in left to Yordan, who I’m guessing continues to be an occasional left fielder.
Yordan is certainly competent and can throw out a runner, but he doesn’t have the range McCormick has, I think that was proved multiple times last night.
Thanks for reading!