Updated Projections - Game 16 of 162
Feels good
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 9.9%
Preseason Projections: 90.1%
The Astros are 5-11, in last place in the AL West and 3.5 games out of first place.
Fangraphs projects an 86-76 finish and first place in the AL West and gives the Astros a 47.8% chance of winning the Division.
Season Projections
Jon Singleton and Jose Abreu combined to go 4 for 9, with 3 runs scored and an RBI.
Add Dubin, line through Kuhnel.
Are the Charts helping?
Let me know if the charts/graphs are making things easier to see rather than a jumble of numbers.
Plan is to add more if readers desire.
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
Number of 100+ Stress Starts on season:
Valdez 2 | Javier 2 | Brown 1 | France 1
Number of 115+ Stress Starts on season:
Valdez 1 | Javier 2 | France 1
Number of 125+ Stress Starts on season:
Valdez 1 | Javier 1
Another low-stress outing for Blanco.
High stress for Abreu, not so much for Montero and Dubin as Astros blew it open.
I never imagined this many low-stress pitches on the bullpen. May need to rethink the calculation.
The Game Turned When
Bottom 4, 2 outs, runners on first and second, 2-1 Texas. Kyle Tucker doubled to center (Liner). Jose Altuve scored. Yordan Alvarez advanced to 3B, increasing Astros win probability from 41.7% to 57.1% (+15.4%).
The Home Run Project
No home runs yesterday.
The Grumpy Ump
Why do umpires have much more problems with strikes than balls?
Overall, not a bad game by Nic Lentz, but the called third strike in B3 to Singleton with full count and bases loaded was trash.
Four straight and 5 of 6 overs.
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
Ridiculous, but insightful.
Astros gained 8 games with a 9-2 win. It’s early.
Luck Rankings show Astros are the second unluckiest team in baseball, with a huge part of that being 0-4 in one-run games.
Higher numbers suggest regression is coming for teams like Rays, Blue Jays and Athletics.
Lower numbers suggest positive regression is a distinct possibility for teams like Marlins, Astros, Rockies and Diamondbacks.
Huge caveat that we are 10% of the way through the season and volatility is extremely high.
New Episode of True Tale from the Big Leagues
Parker Coleman and I talked about the craziness of the 1972 Braves. Give it a listen, if you are so inclined.
Stat(s) of the Day
Jeremy Pena’s 3.0% BB percentage is the lowest of his career and less than half of last season.
After walking 3.9% in his rookie season of 2022, Pena walked 6.8% in 2023.
Pena’s current BABIP of .352 is higher than either of his previous seasons (.298 in 2022 and .323 in 2023).
The current league average for BABIP is .293.
Prospecting - Alonzo Tredwell
After being drafted in the 2nd round last summer, Alonzo Tredwell finally made his professional debut on April 12th for Fayetteville vs. Charleston.
Tredwell was the starting pitcher and threw 27 strikes on 49 pitches over 2.1 innings, giving up 4 hits and 4 earned runs, walking 1, striking out 3 and picking up the loss.
Thanks for reading!