Updated Projections - Game 27 of 162
Astros win 12-4 in Mexico City
Composition of Projections:
2024 Actuals: 16.7%
Preseason Projections: 83.3%
EDITOR’S NOTE: Apparently losing is good for business as we have broken the record for views in a month with 5 days remaining.
Thank you to those who have read and shared. More to come.
The Astros are 8-19, in last place in the AL West and 7.0 games behind the Seattle Mariners.
Fangraphs projects an 83-79 finish, 2nd place in the AL West, gives the Astros a 29.6% chance of winning the Division and a 48.2% chance of making the playoffs.
Season Projections
Added Cabbage. There’s something I never thought I’d type.
Separated active for cleaner look.
Numbers for non-active players will continue to decrement as season progresses.
Stress Index
The goal is to capture the stress put on a pitcher, rather than just a number of pitches.
The calculation is really quite simple: Number of pitches x aLI, where aLI is the average leverage index.
102 pitches with aLI of .90 for Blanco.
Team average stress per start is 87.16.
Note two pitchers who average over 100 have spent time on IL and now JV is over 100 average.
Inefficient innings by Abreu (20 pitches), Scott (25 pitches) and Bielak (25 pitches).
Hader last pitched on April 19.
The Game Turned When
Top 3, 2 outs, runner on 1st, 2-1 Colorado. Yordan Alvarez homered (Fly). Chas McCormick scored. Astros win probability went from 37.1% to 54.9% (+17.8%).
The Home Run Project
Yordan Alvarez (3rd inning): 25-degree launch angle, 108.8 MPH exit velocity, 461 feet, 0.91 LI.
Kyle Tucker: 43-degree launch angle, 97.4 MPH exit velocity, 409 feet, 0.46 LI.
Yordan Alvarez (9th inning): 22-degree launch angle, 113.0 MPH exit velocity, 461 feet, .01 LI.
The Grumpy Ump
Added a chart to show how wildly different umps are on called strikes.
NOTE: OVERALL FAVOR column is changed to reflect Astros only. In other words, a +0.24 in favor of Yankees is reflected as -0.24 here.
Information, except for O/U, courtesy of umpscorecards.com, just presented in a way that is easier for my brain to process.
Projected Standings and Luck Rankings
The Astros currently project to 100 losses.
Houston moves to 28th in Luck Rankings, ahead of only Arizona and Miami.
Houston is 0-7 in one-run games and 0-3 in extra-innings (there’s some overlap).
Houston is the only team without a one-run win.
Stat(s) of the Day
Batting average vs. expected Batting Average
Astros average 5.7% pop-ups, MLB average 7.1%.
Thanks for reading!