Updated Projections - Game 96 of 162
Sittin' on the dock of the bay
Composition of Projections:
2023 Actuals: 59.3%
Preseason Projections: 40.7%
Season Projections
Yordan played in Sugar Land.
Tucker and Julks in a virtual time for projected team leader in stolen bases.
Whenever you can get 5.2 shutout from Bielak, that’s a good day [see below].
Neris and Maton in virtual time for projected appearances.
Astros 162
Click on the image for episode 96.
Bullpen Usage
4 games till an off day, so getting Pressly a day today would be nice, even though he’s only pitched once in four days.
Today’s Pitching Matchup
NOTE: I’ve sorted these by wOBA against to make it easier to determine who to watch for (or bet on, if you are so inclined).
J.P. France with no experience against the A’s and Hogan Harris with limited experience against Astros.
K Prop
5.5 is the number for France and with no history, no bet for me.
Odds
Astros -188 on the MoneyLine and -115 -1.5. Similar to yesterday, I like the Astros on the ML and am leary of the spread. The team is too inconsistent offensively at the moment.
Projected Standings & Luck Rankings
Rangers continue to thrive.
Current Playoff Projections:
AL Division Winners: Rangers, Rays, Twins
Rangers are now projected with the most wins in AL, which Tampa has held since their torrid start.
In the real world, the Orioles have overtaken the Rays by percentage points, but my numbers like the Rays long-term.
AL Wild Cards: Orioles, Blue Jays, Astros
Red Sox 2 games back of Astros for the final AL Wild Card spot, 2.5 in actual standings.
NL Division Winners: Braves, Dodgers, Brewers
The Braves lost their 4th game of July last night. They lost only 4 in the entire month of June.
NL Wild Cards: Giants, Diamondbacks, Phillies
Phillies now project to 2 games better than Marlins for the final projected Wild Card spot.
In actual standings, Marlins 0.5 games behind Phillies and the Reds 2 games back.
Luck Rankings
Since we projected these:
Marlins 51-38 .573 ↓ Since: 2-7 ✔︎
Reds 49-39 .557 ↓ Since: 2-7 ✔︎
Orioles 51-35 .593 ↓ Since: 7-2 ✕
Royals 25-63 .284 ↑ Since: 3-6 ✔︎
Padres 41-46 .471 ↑ Since: 5-4 ✔︎
Cubs 40-46 .465 ↑ Since: 5-4 ✔︎
May not mean anything notes of the day
This is how 5.2 shutout innings affected Brandon Bielak’s (Baseball Savant) numbers:
Bielak got 8 swings and misses, all on his fastball.
J.P. France has an interesting mix depending on which side the batter hits from.
93.5% of changeups come against LHBs and opponents are slashing only .182/.201/.273 on the pitch.
Conversely, 90% of sliders come against RHBs and opponents are slashing .175/.298/.500 off the pitch with 4 HRs in 31 batted ball events.
Both RHB and LHB are batting .252 against France, but 9 of the 10 home runs allowed have come against RHBs, even though RHBs account for only 57% of plate appearances.
Not only are batters from both sides of the plate hitting .252 against J.P. France, but opponents are batting .252 against France at Minute Maid Park and .252 away from Minute Maid Park against France.
France’s ERA at Minute Maid Park is 4.91.
France’s ERA away from Minute Maid is 2.18.
Since Yordan last played, the Astros are 17-16, with these stats:
ERA 4.68 Starters ERA 4.81 Relievers 4.49 12 Saves 8 Blown Saves
Batting: .258/.327/.436 with .330 wOBA 111 wRC+
If you are so inclined:
Thanks for reading!