2026 Projections: Loperfido, Salazar, Smith

The platoon option, the backup, and the mystery

Mar 17, 2026

It’s a three-projection day at Crawford Street Journal with the return of Joey Loperfido, fan favorite Cesar Salazar and the kid, Cam Smith up today.

Joey Loperfido

Returning to the Astros fold after a year-plus in Canada, Joey Loperfido is a left-handed bat who broke in with the Astros in 2024 and was sent to Toronto in the Kikuchi deal later that summer.

He thrived in Toronto last season in limited playing time and was re-acquired for Jesus Sanchez in the off-season in a move that earned the Astros some salary relief.

Loperfido has an opportunity for extensive playing time in the corner outfield spots, especially if someone like Zach Cole doesn’t make the roster out of the spring, and in fact, Roster Resource has Loperfido starting in left as of this writing.

That said, the projections are mediocre as there is a ton of swing and miss in Loperfido’s profile.

To date, he has 122 MLB strikeouts and just 17 walks.

Summary: Loperfido could develop into a solid everyday player, but he could also end up on the replacement-level fringe if defense and/or offense dip.

He feels like a platoon player as his career OPS+ is 105 vs. RHP and just 78 vs. LHP, with 80% of his MLB plate appearances coming against RHP, and asking him to be an everyday player at the MLB level is more of a commentary on the Astros roster than Loperfido’s skill level.

Cesar Salazar

We are Cesar Salazar fans in this house.

Sure, he’s thought of as an organizational player who’s been forced to the MLB level out of desperation three straight seasons. It’s apparent the Astros are not comfortable with him as a full-season backup and have signed a couple of veterans “just in case”.

As the old saying goes, it is what it is.

Salazar will do fine when given the opportunity, but those opportunities will be few and far between, even when he’s on the Big League roster.

Given that he has 0 options remaining, the Astros may lose him when that decision is required to be made, or, as the Astros are wont to do, they may keep him so they don’t have to face that choice.

Summary: Salazar is a classic average backup catcher profile — weak power bat (sub-90 wRC+), but on-base help in spots keeps overall value positive in a bench role.

As seen in the wRC+ history above, the tiny sample limits precision (or anything close to it), but this fits the archetype of a serviceable third catcher/emergency option rather than a high-end backup.

Cam Smith

No charts here, as Smith is another where my rookie rule applies: His projections for this season start with what he did last season, nothing more, nothing less, and for Smith, that means a 90 wRC+ and a 1.0 fWAR that will be updated as 2026 develops.

There was so much hope and hype about Smith in 2025, but it looked like he was exhausted mentally and physically by the time August rolled around, struggling to a 25 OPS+ in August and a 93 in September.

Above, I suggested Loperfido could be a platoon candidate, and this could be his counterpart.

The right-handed-batting Smith has extreme splits: 132 OPS+ vs. LHP and 72 vs. RHP.

Roster Resource has Smith as the everyday right fielder, and the professional projections are for modest gains - ~1.2 fWAR and 96-98 wRC+.

I dare say, a team with 3 HR from their centerfielder will need more than 9 from their right fielder.

Summary: The offensive output is below what you would expect from a right fielder, but Smith provides above-average defense and some baserunning value, which elevate Smith to a positive contributor and a dependable contributor in 2026.