A Positive Spin on the Rotation Projections
STEAMER Projections offer a glimmer of hope for the rotation
Most of the news and analysis I’ve shared over the offseason hasn’t been positive, as the Astros’ try to piece together a pitching staff and lineup that will contend in 2026.
Recently, though, there have been some positives. The Astros’ signed Japanese free agent Tatsuya Imai, the lineup could contend with the Mariners for best in the West, and a healthy Yordan could add 9 wins to Houston’s total.
Much of the negativity has centered around a bruised and battered pitching staff, especially one riddled with injuries and projected to lose Framber Valdez.
But if you dig deep enough, there is some good news, at least in one set of projections.
If you’ve been around here long enough, you know I’m big on quality starts.
Sure, it’s good for the individual pitcher, but it’s also better for the team, as I’ve shown over the years that teams that get quality starts win about 70% of the time, whether or not the starter gets the win.
The Astros got 68 quality starts last season and went 50-18 in those games and 37-57 in ones they didn’t.
It’s not rocket science.
Thinking about this, I took a look at the projections - specifically the STEAMER and THE BAT projections on fangraphs.com and found the numbers below for projected Astros starters in 2026.
Yes, they totaled 164 starts. I’m not sure why, perhaps rounding, but it drives me nuts.
The STEAMER projections are interesting because they actually project more quality starts than the Astros had in 2025, which is not something I would have predicted with the injuries and loss of Valdez.
On the flip side, the THE BAT projections are dreadful and if the Astros end up with 44 quality starts, I’m here to tell you they will not win the West.
The good news is those THE BAT projections seem off to me. Way off.
For example, Hunter Brown had 21 quality starts in 31 2025 starts and THE BAT projects 13, a decrease of 38%.
Even if Brown is “due for regression,”, 38% seems hefty, especially for a healthy starter in his prime.
With the Astros planning to implement a 6-man rotation for at least part of the season, there’s a legitimate question of how that will affect the rotation, specifically Brown.
He’ll likely get fewer than 31 starts. How will an arm used to pitching every fifth day respond? Will it be a positive? Negative? Not affect him at all?
All questions with unknowable answers at this point and the same could be said for the other starters, too.
All that said, losing Valdez’s 20 quality starts may turn out to be huge, especially if you’re inclined towards the THE BAT projections.
If we multiply quality starts by .7 (average winning %), you have a ballpark figure for (team) minimum expected wins you need to replace (14) and in fact the Astros won 15 of Framber’s 20 quality starts, but only two of his 11 non-quality starts.
It won’t be easy, but it is possible to match or even exceed a 17-14 record with less than 20 quality starts from that spot in the rotation.
In fact, the STEAMER projections not only show it’s possible, but they have, in fact, projected the Astros to overcome the loss of Valdez by projecting more quality starts without Valdez in the equation.
The THE BAT projections? Not so much.
Me? I see both sides of this discussion.
I’m a quality start acolyte and believe they are underrated, but I also feel like there’s an opportunity to match or exceed 17-14 out of that spot.
As always, thanks for reading!