And Away We Go...
Astros open post All-Star Break at Daikin
After a less-than-stellar 47-51 mark pre-All-Star Break, the Astros start the final 64 regular-season games with six at Daikin Park, hosting the Orioles and Marlins for three apiece.
My son and I will be there on Friday and Saturday.
Before we get to the expected wins, let’s take a look at what fangraphs.com says about a potential playoff run:
Projected Remaining Record: 32-32
Projected Final Record: 79-83
Win Division: 10.0%
Wild Card: 15.3%
Make Playoffs: 25.2%
That feels about right to me, and as we’ll see, better than what I am currently projecting.
Expected Wins
The Astros can’t seem to get past 77 expected wins, which they reached 4 times since June 30, only to fall back.
They currently sit at 76, which would place them 6 games behind the projected Division winner, the Seattle Mariners.
July wRC+
Reorganized to hopefully make it easier to read.
Updated Projections
Houston optioned Santa right before the break without a corresponding move that I have seen, so they are sitting at 12 pitchers as I type.
They will most certainly make a move for a 13th prior to Friday’s game.
The team has a 5.65 ERA in July, with the starters at 7.36 and the bullpen at 3.86, which wasn’t helped by a rough couple of outings by Brian King in the Rangers series.
The bats are slashing .242/.310/.438 with 17 HR and 52 runs in 10 July games.
Record by Starting Pitcher
Peter Lambert is the scheduled starter on Friday for Houston.
Quality Starts
Not enough.
On pace for 46 after 70 last season.
Game Scores
Realizing those numbers may not mean much to some readers, I’m attempting to present them in an easier-to-understand format.
So, I’ve converted the scores into letter grades, as you’d get in school.
I’ve changed this chart, hoping to improve it.
Win Shares
Let me know what you think of the new format. I’m still messing around with it, hoping to make it easier to read.
Yordan continues to dominate, but nice season to date by Isaac.
MLB Expected Wins
I likely won’t have another post until next Friday.
Thanks for reading!