Decisions, Decisions: Center Field

Plenty of options, but no real answer

Oct 21, 2024

The Astros enter the offseason with more questions than centerfield options and they do have centerfield options, it’s just that none stick out as THE answer.

For a couple of years, I’ve argued that Jake Meyers “is what he is” (great field, occasional hot streak, a lot of Ks) and that was only cemented by his 2024 season.

I’ve also been a Chas backer because I believe he has more upside than Jake, as his 22 home runs in 2023 showed, but I also recognize he’s limited at the plate, too, as we’ll soon see.

I’m not the biggest Mauricio Dubon in center field fan, but even with Joe Espada at the helm, Dubon started in center 18 times (at least some likely because of Chas’ injuries) and was good defensively, too.

Add it all up and the Astros have at least three inhouse options with none appearing to be palatable offensively, making the position a giant question mark heading into 2025.

Much like first base, it’s a position that needs to contribute more offensively than it did in 2024 for the Astros to be a serious contender.

Houston came in 20th in bWAR at the position, with a -0.3 total (almost all Meyers), when the league average was 0.5.

The Numbers

It began with so much promise. Jake Meyers hit .260 as a rookie back in 2021, despite striking out over 30% of the time.

The strikeout numbers have gotten better, but the promise hasn’t been fulfilled as Meyers has been consistent over the last three seasons, and I don’t mean that in a good way.

Averages of .227, .227 and .219 aren’t a good trend and while you can quibble and say “yeah, but his xBA was 21 points higher than his average last season” (2024) and that’s true, for his career Meyers’ batting average and xBA are exactly the same - .228.

Similarly, Meyers wOBA and xWOBA don’t scream that there’s something I’m not seeing either, only being a few points different over his career.

Hence, my conclusion that Meyers is what he is after 1,177 MLB plate appearances.

Over the last three seasons Meyers has a batting average of .223.

Simply put Meyers can’t hit a breaking ball and that hasn’t changed since his debut.

For Chas, the main culprit in 2024 was the fastball, which is surprising, but feels like it’s correctable, assuming McCormick is healthy in 2025.

The concern is that he peaked in 2022 and even in his 22 homer 2023 the success against the fastball began to dip.

Be that as it may, history tells us that Chas can and has hit the fastball while Meyers has never hit breaking pitches well.

This leaves me with hope that a healthy Chas will be closer to 2023 Chas than 2024 Chas.

I have been plenty critical of Dubon over the years and while I think he is much overhyped for a guy with a career 87 OPS+ (and an 88 OPS+ in 2024), he has been much better than either Meyers or McCormick against breaking balls and offspeed pitches.

All three are above-average defenders, with Meyers being the best, McCormick a half-notch below him and then Dubon, at least in my mind.

Jake was 14 outs above average (OAA) in 1,144 innings, Chas was 1 OAA in just 97 innings and Dubon was 1 OAA in 153 innings in center1.

Conclusion: The Answer Lies Elsewhere

The Astros are not in a position to cover a .228 hitting center fielder and McCormick offers the most offensive upside at the position if he can once again hit fastballs.

However, someone other than Yordan Alvarez is going to have to play left field and that’s likely to be Chas, with what we know today.

In the last three seasons Yordan has played, 56, 40 and 53 games in left field, leaving anywhere from 106 to 122 games to cover.

I don’t think anything comes of this, but I have to at least mention those on the free agent market per MLB.com:

Cody Bellinger (29 years old, 6.7 WAR) -- can opt out
Harrison Bader (31, 2.4)
Michael A. Taylor (34, 2.4)
Garrett Hampson (30, 1.1)
Kevin Pillar (36, 0.8)
Aaron Hicks (35, 0.4)
Manuel Margot (30, 0.3) -- club option
Enrique Hernández (33, -0.4)

Perhaps the Astros bring in an under-the-radar free agent, or give Pedro Leon another shot (he looked overmatched in his brief stint), but this feels like Jake Meyers will once again get the bulk of the work in center.

If Meyers continues to struggle I would advocate for Dubon on occasion when available and Chas on days when Alvarez plays left (Framber days, as an example).

The takeaway is we shouldn’t expect something different when the pieces are the same and deployed in the same fashion.

Thank you for reading!