Final Roster Thoughts and AL West Prediction
The roster is complete, the stage is set and the season is here
My final projections are below in a new format I plan to use this season.
I will keep the detailed numbers in the format of previous years in the background, but I think people care less about how many doubles and triples Jeremy Pena hits and more about the numbers they see on their TV screen daily.
I also like the cleaner and more “professional” appearance, which drove the change.
Note that players with 0 MLB experience, Cam Smith and Ryan Gusto in this case, do not have projections.
My projections use actual MLB experience and while it’s “fun” to project numbers for Cam Smith such as the ones on FanGraphs, I’ve found them to be less useful (and often not in the ballpark of reality).
Once these players see game action, their projections will prorate for their rookie season.
For players with one year of MLB experience, Dezenzo and Arrighetti for example, their initial projection will be their first-year statistics.
Once they see action this year, the formula will kick in, using this year’s actual stats and last year’s final stats to project their 2025 final numbers.
Cadence
I haven’t settled on how often to publish. I generally update the stats daily, but I will be traveling quite a bit this baseball season, with trips to Houston, Round Rock, Sugar Land and San Antonio on tap.
I will need some catch up days.
I want to respect your inbox, too as I know how frustrating that can be.
My sense is the first day of a series makes sense, but I’ll try some different days and see how things flow.
Let me know what you think:
Final Roster Thoughts
I largely agree with the decisions made with perhaps the exception of Dezenzo, though given the options available, that is easily defendable.
While he had a solid spring and certainly looks the part, I’m trying to figure out what he offers.
He’s not a left-handed bat, not an adept outfielder (at least not yet) and not experienced anywhere but third base, where Isaac Paredes is sitting on a three-year contract.
He does offer some versatility, starting MiLB games at 1st (25), 2nd (15), 3rd (119), LF (3) and DH (10), so in that sense he trumps Jon Singleton.
I simply wonder how willing Espada will to play him anywhere other than third, given his reluctance last year to use Joey Loperfido at first in a similar situation.
It’s a different year and a different team and perhaps Espada will be more willing to take chances in the field, but I can’t help but wonder if Dezenzo will end up like Grae Kessinger, filling a roster spot without a chance of seeing the field more than once every couple of weeks.
That said, this is just the Opening Day roster. It will change. Many times.
How much?
24 players had a plate appearance for the Astros in 2024 and the team used 32 pitchers (including Kessinger).
It will change.
Often.
The Old, the New and the Made Up
Some of the other metrics I’ll be periodically tracking include:
Projected Standings*
Luck Rankings*
Win Shares*
OAA/OBB*
Framing
FIP
Shut Down Innings (SI)*
In Order (IO)*
Kikuchi Starts*
Quality At-Bats (QAB)**
10 Pitch At-Bats***
BB% for Pitchers
Infield OAA
Pitches Per Plate Appearance
BABE and I unofficially created BABE+
*Self-developed.
**There are varying definitions, I use my own.
***Don’t know that this is specifically tracked anywhere.
Predicting the AL West
I’ve spent a good chunk of the offseason analyzing the moves of the various AL West teams, trying to figure out who’s going to win what I see as a close three-team race.
Each of the Astros, Mariners and Rangers have flaws that mean none are likely to win the World Series or maybe even get there, but baseball is a weird game.
Any of those three teams could win the division, but the only real conclusion I’ve come to is that the Rangers are vastly overrated, not by the projections, but by the humans.
The various WAR projections that I’ve seen have the race very close.
For example, the FanGraphs projections (at last look) show this:
Astros: 42.5 fWAR
Rangers: 42.0 fWAR
Mariners: 41.4 fWAR
Three teams within a hair of a single fWAR.
But back to the Rangers being overrated. I’ve seen their rotation projected as high as 5th in baseball, and their lineup projected as high as 9th.
Both seem high to me.
The rotation is headlined by Jacob deGrom and his projected 4.0 fWAR. I’ve been through this before and won’t bore you with the details again, but it is a gigantic leap of faith for a 37-year-old who has started 20 games total in three seasons.
deGrom’s projected 4.0 fWAR accounts for 38% of the Rangers’ projected rotation fWAR.
For reference sake, a much younger and generally healthier Framber Valdez accounts for 34% of the Astros’ projected rotation fWAR.
Two other Ranger projected rotation members have a total of zero MLB wins between them.
Could the Rangers end up with the 9th best rotation in MLB?
Sure.
Would I project the Rangers to end up with the 9th best rotation in MLB?
No.
While the Rangers have made huge strides in the bullpen, the Astros and Mariners have better closers.
Speaking of the Mariners, they well could be my pick except for the George Kirby injury and the uncertainty that brings.
Any team that gets 92 quality starts has a shot in my book and I tend to think they will be better on offense this season, because well, it’d be hard to get worse.
I’m left with the Astros, despite trying look in every other direction.
Most in the prediction business see the losses of Tucker and Bregman, while ignoring the gains of Paredes and Walker.
I have two main concerns about Houston: The outfield defense is likely to suffer with Altuve and Smith as regulars and the bullpen was treated as an area to save money in the offseason.
We shall see if one or the other (or both) costs this team in 2025.
Any of the three could win the division, but if I had to pick one today, it would be the Astros, followed by Texas and then Seattle.
I love your information. It is time to find out how it will play out. I am frankly pretty excited about this year because of the changes. It helps that I am a Florida State alum and baseball fan and the addition of Cam is a pleasant surprise. Let the journey begin...