2025 Projection: Yainer Diaz
Solid offensively, Yainer still has work to do behind the plate
In his first season as the primary catcher (99 games started at C), Yainer Diaz finished a tick below the .300 mark with a slash of .299/.325/.441 with 16 HR and 84 RBI.
Behind the plate, Diaz’s Blocks Above Average (75th percentile) and Caught Stealing Above Average (76th percentile) were, well, above average, but his framing didn’t just remain poor, it regressed to the 4th percentile (from 21st in 2023), which may explain why some pitchers were reportedly reluctant to embrace Diaz as a receiver.
While the 17-point jump in batting average is noted, Diaz’s slug suffered mightily, dropping from 23 HR in 355 at-bats to 16 in 585 at-bats and .538 to .441, respectively.
Diaz still chases far too often (2nd percentile) and walks too little (5th percentile), but makes up for it with good xwOBA (80th), xBA (97th) and HardHit% (85th).
Most of Diaz’s gain in average was against left-handers, whom he hit .306 against in 2024, versus .214 in 2023.
Is that gain an outlier or a sign of things to come? 2025 will go a long way towards helping us understand which is more likely.
To the eyes of the average fan, contributions at the plate may outweigh defensive concerns, but for the pitching staff, better framing would help a group that has issues throwing strikes.
For reference, Victor Caratini’s Framing was in the 79th percentile.
Diaz is projected to take a minor step back from his 3.1 fWAR of 2024, but is still a key piece for the 2025 Astros.
Will the slug return? That’s one of the big questions heading into 2025 without Tucker and Bregman and my numbers project an increase in Slug and HR total, but not to the 2023 levels.
Projected fWAR: 3.0
Projected Win Shares: 6.5
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