2025 Projection: Yordan Alvarez
Alvarez hits better when playing LF, but the Astros can't afford slips and falls
Once upon a time, Astros fans were slow to embrace Yordan Alvarez, but now he’s seen as the best the team has to offer, especially with Kyle Tucker on the north side of Chicago in 2025.
Much like me, the Astros feel Alvarez is so important to the team that they want him to DH for the vast majority of the time to avoid the various bumps and bruises that may cost the slugger at-bats.
The numbers below project Alvarez for 50 starts in left field and while that may still happen, it seems less likely now that Jose Altuve’s name is being bandied about as a part-time outfielder.
While we can discuss and debate the relative merits of how much left field Alvarez should play, the fact is he is being paid for his bat.
I was taken aback after spending a month railing on the Steamer Projections only to find out those projections come very close to the projections above.
That’s likely because of Alvarez’s consistency: Barring an injury you’re going to get 33-37 home runs and 90-95 RBI.
Alvarez hit for a much better average when playing left field(.322/.391/.563 vs .300/.393/.569 as DH) in 2024, but the OBP and Slug were virtually the same.
His career numbers, however, show a definite upward trend when playing the field in just over 30% of career plate appearances:
LF: .329/.409/.633
DH: .286/.381/.558
There has to be a balance somewhere and it’s Joe Espada’s job to figure out where it is.
It feels like 100% DH would be detrimental to Alvarez’s overall numbers, but playing left field for anything more than 50 games could jeopardize his availability over the long-term of the season.
The Astros won last summer with Tucker on the shelf, but it’s difficult to imagine the 2025 version of this club winning without 135 or so games from Alvarez.
Tucker was hurt at the plate and Alvarez hurt himself on the bases near the end of last season which is a good reminder that being a 100% DH does not eliminate the risk of injury, but instead reduces it.
In 2024, Alvarez registered a 5.3 fWAR and 11.5 Win Shares and is projected to be in that same ballpark in 2025.
Projected fWAR: 5.4
Projected Win Shares: 11.7
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